Intersections went through six stages in order to define challenges for the future of cities. The scenario development is based on the scenario method, cifs the copenhagen method and the foresight process framework by Voros. 

1. Analysis: They started with an analysis based on desk research (see sources below) and qualitative interviews (with NGOs focused on elders such as Pro Senectute, Innovage, Gerontologie and academia Bern university on applied science Institute on Ageing) of current developments, signals and trends in the areas of government, environment & energy and economy. They put an emphasis on the perspective of senior citizens, as they will make up an increasing part of the population by 2050.

2. Trends Selection: Based on their analysis, they defined around 30 trends and influencing factors. They preselected 9 factors with high polarity and ambiguity (development in both extremes is possible and impactful), in order to come up with plausible scenarios. In a next step, three factors were prioritized through a quantitative survey with elders: weather extremes, recycling economy and cyberattacks.

3. Scenarios: In order to venture into probable futures, they applied "what if" questions to these factors, which are difficult to answer and enable new perspectives. In response to these questions, they formulated three scenarios, one each for the areas of government, environment & energy and economy (see scenarios below).

4. Immersion: In a next step, they curated an sensually and psychologically immersive workshop (heat-smog-tent, blackout event, improvisation actors etc.) during Smart Suisse Basel to dive into these different futures and start feeling the challenges of the future. 

5. Workshop: The scenarios were deliberately kept short so that participants in the workshop could develop and embellish them. By means of various exercises (looking back to 2050, dealing with power outages, and inventing jobs), the participants traveled into the futures and derived relevant challenges.

6. Tender: Finally, the scenarios and challenges were revised for the call for proposals. They were de-radicalized and generalized so that many people would feel inspired and motivated by them.

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SOURCES

The scenarios are based on various studies and existing scenario work. Here you can find the most relevant sources structured in three categories:

 

Swiss:

• Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz und der Kantone 2020-2050 (BFS)

• Welche Risiken gefährdet die Schweiz? (BABS)

• Klimabedingte Risiken und Chancen (BAFU)

• Energiestrategie 2050 (BFE)

• Klimaszenarien für die Schweiz (NCCS)

• Delphi-Expertenbefragung zu Smart Cities 2035 (ZHAW)

• Swiss Smart City Survey 2020 / 2023 (ZHAW)

• Smart Government Trends (PWC)

• Digitale Vernetzung zwischen der Gemeinde und der Bevölkerung (Myni Gmeind)

 

International:

• IPCC Report 2023 (IPCC) 

• World Population Prospects 2022 (UNO)

• Net Zero by 2050 (iea)

• Die Stadt von übermorgen (Nationale Stadtentwicklungs Politik)

 

Focus Age:

• Wohnung, Haus und Immobilienmarkt (Age Stiftung)

• Studie «Digitale Senioren» (Pro Senectute)

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3 SCENARIOS

The scenarios were deliberately kept short to give the workshop participants creative freedom. Any additions and modifications with regard to locations, times, groups of people, etc. were encouraged.

 

• State: Since the state can no longer guarantee essential infrastructures under regular cyber attacks, society must step in. The state now coordinates and controls that all individuals take care of their assigned part of the infrastructure. There are tasks to ensure communications, public transport and hospitals.

• Environment & Energy: To deal with regular climate extremes such as heat, air quality and flooding, society adapts to the conditions. In some cases, for example, people cannot leave their homes for 1-2 weeks because of smog. At other moments, part of the population moves from overheated regions to the cool mountains. Accordingly, the housing and work system becomes flexible.

• Economy: The use of natural resources is sanctioned so strongly that the economy as well as society is obliged to recycle, reprocess and share resources. Nothing - really nothing - must be wasted, even if it requires time-intensive processes. In this context, action is not just local, but global. Switzerland - and in some cases even municipalities - take special care to ensure that no resources leave their own borders without authorization.

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INFORMATION ON IDEA SUBMISSION

• Take a look at the ideas submitted so far - ideas marked as "in implementation" will receive funding by us according to the first jury decision!

• For details on Idea Submission Requirements & Modalities read our Guidelines & Conditions. Please especially acknowledge that evidence of a co-funding transaction of CHF 2550 is required to receive the Innovation Booster funding. If you do not have an implementation partner in mind for your idea yet, don't worry - if your idea convinces us, we will support you with the search for an implementation partner.

• For a detailed explanation of what stakeholder groups can be involved in the Innovation Booster Swiss Smart Cities, you may also refer to the Glossary. 

• Finally, please take note: All innovation teams must agree with the Code of Conduct.

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